By Jack Curtis
Webster describes drought as, “long continued dry weather: want of rain.” Obviously Mr. Webster never observed a Western states’ drought. Annual is a misused description of a drought. The one we are experiencing this year is a continuation of one that started in 2000. Precipitation and runoff in the basin are highly variable year to year. Water conditions in the basin’s rivers depend largely on snow melt and precipitation in the basin’s northern areas. Observed historical data (1906 – 2020) show that overall, natural flows in the Colorado River Basin averaged about 14.7 million acre-feet (MAF) annually. Flows have dipped significantly during the current drought, which dates to 2000. Natural flows from 2000 to 2020 averages approximately 12.6 MAF per year. It has been estimated that the 19-year period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest period in more than 100 years of record keeping. The dry conditions are consistent with prior droughts in the basin that were identified through tree ring studies; some of these droughts lasted for decades. Climate change impacts, including warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, may further increase the likelihood of prolonged drought in the basin. In short, the worse the climate changes, the longer and more severe the droughts will get.
Droughts, as we know them, generally start in the spring and last through the summer. During this period the Southwestern states experience increases in temperatures and very little precipitation. People tend to use more water during this season and the smaller basin tributary rivers and creeks tend to dry up. The combination of more human consumption and loss of water into the basin results in loss of water in basin lakes and reservoirs. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are already at record lows, and are close to the point where the Glen Canyon and Hoover Dam will no longer be able to generate electrical power.
While I was stationed at Nellis AFB from 1959 to 1965, my wife and I made several trips over the Hoover Dam. Every time we crossed the dam we could see that the lake water was getting lower on the “bathtub” ring on the lake wall. The water level in the lake has dropped almost 143 feet since 2000, its lowest level since 1937.
I was born 2/3/35 in Muskegon, MI, 12 years in USAF, married twice, 2 +3 children, moved to Tucson 1969, retired from Raytheon 1989. Moved to Sierra Morado community in 2012. Started working on a Mississippi River inter basin water transfer to the Colrado River project around 2000. I had been thinking about it on and off since I read an article about the arid southwest in a science magazine in 1946. I got to experience it when I was stationed at Nellis AFB in Las Vegas for 6 years, most of it in the hot sun on the flight line with no sun protection. I am now recovering from a bad case of skin cancer.
